Election fever - now Israel's turn?

Just when we thought we were coming to the end of election season, the politicians in Israel seem to be pulling us back in! Although nothing is final, the most recent developments indicate that as American electoral campaigns wind down on November 4th, Israel's great political race will just be getting underway.

Breaking news this morning suggests that Kadima leader, Foreign Minister Tzipp Livni, has struck out in her efforts to form a new government, and that Israelis will be heading to the polls in early 2009. This comes after the ultra-orthodox Mizrahi (Sephardi) Shas party, a member of the current caretaker government, announced that it had made a "final" decision not to join a government led by Livni.

Shas based its decision on Livni's reported unwillingness to approve almost three hundred million dollars in additional transfer payments to large families (a prime Shas constituency). She also seems to have rejected a key Shas demand that she pledge in writing not to negotiate with the Palestinians about the future of Jerusalem.

Of course, nothing in Israeli politics is final until it absolutely is, and several election-averting scenarios still exist. First, Shas and Livni could be engaged in the age-old game of brinksmanship, each daring the other not to back down first. In other words, it's entirely possible that a political deal will still be hammered out.

The Meretz party, however, is hoping for a different outcome: Meretz MK Yossi Beilin this morning called on Livni to, "make a daring decision," and set up a minority government that would presumably receive the informal support of Israel's three predominantly Arab parties. Beilin argues that Shas' decision is actually, "a rare opportunity to create a narrow government, which would take determined steps and bring them to the decision of the voters in the next election".

In other words, Beilin envisions a government that formally has the support of, at most, 60 MKs (from Kadima, Labor, the two competing Pensioners parties, and Meretz). Although such a government would not remain stable for long (it represents, at best, half of Israel's 120-member Knesset), Beilin suggests that it would be able to move quickly on the negotiating front and present its diplomatic achievements in a snap election.

Although such a scenario is probably unrealistic, it is not impossible. As Meretz MK Abu Vilan told the New York Times today, Livni and Meretz are on the verge of reaching an agreement on the party's role in her government. Indeed, Meretz chair, Haim Oron, has indicated that, "should a [new] government be established, there's a reasonable chance that Meretz will be in it." What is less clear, he said, is whether Livni will be able to establish a government at all.

Nonetheless, should Livni decide to show greater "largesse" towards Shas - such as by agreeing to its ultimatum on Jerusalem, or acceding to its demand to extend the jurisdiction of rabbinical courts to cover property disputes in marital cases - Meretz would probably have to rethink its position.

Livni has until November 3rd to gain the Knesset's approval of a new government. By the time this column appears again, in two weeks' time, we'll know not only what choice the American public has made, but whether the Israeli public will soon be called upon to make a decision that is no less crucial.