Meretz MK Abu Vilan: Release Marwan Barghouti to Palestinian Authority

On Thursday July 10th, Meretz USA hosted Meretz party MK Avshalom (“Abu”) Vilan at Beit Shalom in New York City. The briefing was also attended via conference call by participants from across North America. Over the past years, MK Vilan has been a keystone for bringing first-hand, up-to-date information about the internal and external current affairs of Israel and its government.

MK Vilan’s talk covered a gamut of issues, from the expected prisoner exchange with Hezbollah and efforts to effect a similar deal with Hamas for the release of Gilad Shalit, to peace talks with Syria and the Palestinian Authority, tensions with Iran, possible upcoming elections in Israel and America, and the status of imprisoned Palestinian political figure Marwan Barghouti.

Vilan gave an insightful analysis of where Israel’s policies and relationships stand today, and where he thinks they should be in the future.

On the Palestinian issue, Vilan noted that, although there is a sincere effort to try and find an agreement, neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians have the political courage or power to close a deal. He argued that the parameters for a deal are already well-known, and had essentially been hammered out in the Geneva Initiative.

Vilan also argued that the time is not advantageous for peacemaking, with elections coming up in the US in November and Presidential elections scheduled for the Palestinian Authority in February. He also said that there are strong indicators that Israel will also face elections soon, possibly as early as March 2009. These events will make it hard to reach a peace agreement. As a result, Vilan stressed the need to maximize stability and calm over the next year, until the sides can again devote themselves to the bargaining process. He warned that if the Gaza ceasefire breaks down and Israel invades the area, it would produce large numbers of casualties and cause a diplomatic setback, without answering the question of who should govern the Strip once Israel left.

On Iran, Vilan complained about the imprudence of recent Israeli posturing, including the much-discussed Israeli Air Force maneuver over the Mediterranean and the publication of Ehud Olmert’s recent tour of the Dimona nuclear facility. These moves, he suggested, were more a function of domestic political showboating than foreign policy, but nonetheless were irresponsible and undiplomatic. Vilan reiterated his conviction that it is madness to believe that Israel could (or should) launch a successful attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities single-handedly. And he warned that Syria might be used as a base for counterattack, should Israel try such a move.

Regarding the recent indirect peace talks with Syria, Vilan informed the attendees that a conference in Paris, July 13, convened by French Pres. Nicolas Sarkozy, could theoretically see an historic handshake between Syrian Pres. Bashar Assad and the Israeli Prime Minister – though he was skeptical that this would actually happen [and it did not]. Vilan stated that, as with the Palestinians, the parameters of an Israeli-Syrian deal are well-known, but he was not sure the Syrian government had the political will at the moment. He noted that the immediate snag in the negotiations was the US Administration’s unwillingness to get involved: Syria’s real demand is not the Golan Heights, but a guarantee of US support, and the removal of Damascus from the list of terror-sponsoring nations. Vilan stated that the Bush Administration seems unprepared to do this, but that the next Administration might take a different approach.

Vilan also discussed the prisoner exchange deal with Hezbollah approved by Israel, and the exchange deal being negotiated with Hamas. He said that too much importance was being ascribed to the release of Samir Kuntar (who is now "a broken man", in his words) to Hezbollah, and that, overall, the deal with Hezbollah was not extracting an exorbitant price from Israel.

On Hamas, Vilan remarked that the problem is less the 350 Palestinian prisoners they want freed, but the political dividends that the organization will reap. Once again, Hamas will boast that violence directed at Israel pays, compared to the Palestinian moderates who have little to show for the negotiations. In order to upend Hamas and strengthen the moderates, Vilan suggested that, several weeks after the deal for Gilad Shalit is completed, Israel should release Marwan Barghouti to the Palestinian Authority. Asked during the question and answer session about the effects of such a move, Vilan stated that Barghouti would win the Palestinian Presidential election, should he decide to run (even from prison!). He described Barghouti as someone who, “... has the chance to unify all parts of Palestinian society,” and “...is the only one who can control Hamas...and lead a secular policy of the Palestinian government.”

On the domestic scene, Vilan said that, in all likelihood, Israel will face elections by March 2009. He believes that Olmert will eventually be forced to resign due to the Morris Talansky affair, in which he failed to report the large sums of cash that he received from the American. Vilan expressed doubt that either of the two leading contenders to replace Olmert, Tzipi Livni and Shaul Mofaz, would be able to create a stable coalition.

(Summary compiled by Rob Lattin and Ron Skolnik)